今年桐油价格上调势在必行

恒源 · 发表于 2007-3-17 20:25:00

安顺市恒源油脂有限公司             陈建明
今天是三月十八日，历史上二00五年的今天，在桐油网论坛上出现一篇署名“天府之国”，题名《全国桐油走势分析》的文章，这篇文章极大地影响了2005年桐油价格的走势，实为桐油论坛上的精品，它拥有6073次的点击率和55份的回贴数，这两个数字至今仍无人超越。这篇文章对整个桐油行业的影响说有多深就有多深！
   历史的经验值得注意，我们今天重读这篇文章，对分析今年全国桐油价格的走势仍既有借鉴、指导意义。下面是文章原文的主要部分：
   “......据统计，目前桐油厂均有大量的库存油及未收完的桐籽，详数如下：
   一、贵州省2000吨。册亨、望谟3000吨，安顺、镇宁2500吨，罗甸2500吨，兴义2000吨，独山、凯里、铜仁2000吨。
   二、广西壮族自治区：6000吨
   三、四川省：4000吨
   四、湖南省：2000吨
   五、云南省：1500吨
   六、江西省：1000吨
   七、湖北省：1000吨
   八、陕西省、河南省、甘肃省2500吨
   （注：本统计不含经销商库存，误差正负10%数量含成品油及待加工原油）
   我想，要求证实数据是否准确，作为中间平台的《桐油网》应最有发言权。
   3万吨......这是否印证了我们的一贯看法：今年桐油有的地方减产，有的地方增产，总量并末减少，很有可能总量还增产了。......3万吨，分量是否太重了？朋友们，今年是否赌大了·！”
   这篇文章所提供的全国库存3万吨，用实践后的今天的观点来看基本是正确的，因为当时主产区桐籽收购尚未结束，（五月中旬结束）两个月的桐籽收购生产量足以挤干它所含的水分。直至今天，我仍说这是一篇好文章。正是这篇文章，扭转了桐油价格上涨的趋势，桐油价从14500/吨（含税、包装、运费）开始往下滑。
   我们大家都知道，供求关系是决定价格的主要因素，试想一下，如果05年全国库存不是3万吨，而是2.6万吨，那么9月份就会断货，即使文章的发表能使价格一时回落，但最后价格仍会回升到14500/吨，仅仅相差4000吨，就可以扭转全国桐油市场价格。我们从05年主产区桐油在产新之前全部销完这一事实来看，05年全国的桐油供求关系应该是基本平衡的，那为什么油价怎么会从14500/吨跌到了产新前10月初的9800/吨呢？这应了“天府之国”的一句话“从众心理”。可见，在一定特殊条件下，舆论也会起决定因素左右市场的。
   前不久，我与柳州土产公司王总通电话他指出：“桐油行业是一个特殊的行业，桐油市场不光要看全国的库存量，更要看桐油生产厂家的心态，不好的心态，本来是可以赚钱的也会转变为不赚钱。”精辟！我赞成他的观点。我之所以发表文章，就是要鼓励我们桐油生产厂家树立起一个良好的心态。因为我也是桐油生产者，一个良好的市场环境是保证赢利的基础。
   在我最近的市场调查中，各厂家均有不同的思想表现。一部分厂家认为今年大减产，桐油一定非得涨价；一部分厂家实事求是地分析市场，并对今年油市寄予很大希望；还有一部分厂家也向我提出今年出口减少，覆铜板生产萎缩，需求疲软，桐油使用量减少，担心桐油会继续回落。但不管是谁，都有着同一个问题，今年的桐油市场走势会怎样发展？
   记得我在06年10月贵阳桐油会议上说：“今年产新桐油不能与06年相比，05-06年榨季的桐油是一个大大的丰收年，应该与04-05年榨季相比。05年全年的平均销价在12500/吨左右，07年全年桐油平均价应与此价持平。”我想，会上有很多同仁没有理解我说这句话的含义。我今天推出“天府之国”在05年发表的这篇文章的主要部分。其目的就是让它作为一面镜子，用来分析和比较07年全国桐油市场。
   当前，全国桐油市场价格比春节前有所回落。广西区现主流调价12300/吨（含税），小油厂12200/吨也在卖。由于桐油行业生产厂家素质参差不齐，价格一时正常地向下波动，在一些小油厂中引起了恐慌，甚至有人提出低于12200元/吨也要卖。这里除了心态恐慌外，百色地区田林县农民还有近千吨桐油待销售，厂家急于销售桐油回笼资金投入收购也是原因之一。只要桐籽收购结束，油价必回升。在这里，我想提醒桐油界的同行们，恐慌、悲观是没有出路的，但也不要像一些厂家没有根据地盲目乐观。盲目乐观是从商之大忌。它会让我们产生误判，造成损失。一切决策都应该建立在调查分析之上，只有通过调查和分析，才具有信心和胆略。
   为了做好现阶段的桐油库存调查，我从年初七就开始忙乎起来了。因为我写文章，用的是真名，我得对我自己的名誉负责。我认真地，反复地力求把各省的库存数搞仔细，做准确。再则，如果误差大给同行们误导造成损失，我又如何面对我的同行们。在这里，我衷心地感谢各省的同仁们对我工作的大力支持。下面所列截止于3月15日全国桐油库存数，供参考。
   一、贵州省共7500吨
      册亨1000吨，兴义600吨，望谟900吨，罗甸1800吨，独山500吨，其它非主产县300吨，安顺市各区县1400吨，预测还能收购桐籽4000吨，折合成桐油计1000吨。
   二、广西区：5800吨
      河池、柳州2000吨，百色地区3000吨，预测还能收购3000吨桐籽折合成桐油计800吨。
   三、云南省：共800吨
      昭通300吨，文山200吨，昆明及滇西300吨
   四、湖南省：共1200吨
      张家界500吨，怀化地区700吨
   五、江西省：共700吨
      现有籽油计300吨，预测还能收购桐籽折合成油400吨
   六、湖北省：共600吨
      十堰地区，来凤县，麻城等共有籽油折合成桐油600吨
   七、河南省：共800吨
      西峡、内乡、浙川、鲁山、光山共有应加工成品油700吨
   八、陕西省：共600吨
   九、四川省：（含重庆市）共2000吨
      现有库存桐油1500吨，预测还能收购部分桐籽折合成桐油500吨
   全国共有桐油20000吨。吸取去年的教训，今年在统计数中增加了预测数量，全国共增加2700吨桐油预测量，也许没有这样多，宁多勿少。
   （注：各地区现有桐籽库存均已折算成桐油进入统计数，经销商不在统计内）2万吨！比05年同期整整少了1万吨！
   在我调查了解中，每一个省，每一个地区，每一个县都在强调今年与05年相比桐籽产量都有不同程度的减产。河南省的西峡县，05年生产桐油五、六百吨。今年全县总共收购了五百来吨桐籽，全部榨完也就一百来吨桐油。陕西省05年春节后还有籽贩从安康站发了2个车皮的桐籽到安顺站卖给镇宁的黄老板。今年却同湖北省打起了桐籽收购仗。湖北十堰市桐籽收购得最多的厂家也有几十万斤。老川东地区去年遭遇了两个多月的特大旱灾，桐籽减产50%。湖南省的张家界地区许多厂家到贵州省铜仁等地区调运桐籽。否则难以开机。主产区黔桂两省，今年桐籽减产30%，由于今年桐籽含油率降低，实际减产40%以上。从当前贵州省（除册亨县还有二十来天的收购期外），紫云、镇宁、罗甸、望谟等县的桐籽收购来看，各县平均每天上市的桐籽只有几千斤，桐籽上市量表明，贵州省已全省进入了收购尾期，比05年提前了近2个月。广西可能扫尾期要比贵州延长半个月。
   综观产新油到现在，黔桂两省的桐油销售量都没有往年同期大。究其原因，我以为：一、新榨季开机比正常年份晚了一个月，今年的桐油销售期就少了一个月；二、1—2月份出口量减少；三、覆铜板厂家生产量减少使桐油用量减少。据了解，百色地区就有一点油都没卖出的厂家。这也是当前一部分厂家急于销售的原因之一。
   由于覆铜板产业向国内转移，桐油出口量减少是必然结果。但是，我们应该看到，国外油墨、绝缘、精密铸造等其它生产用途的桐油使用量并没有减少。对这部分用量的出口是稳定的。06年春节后国内桐油市场大幅的跌价致使外商及出口商年前桐油采购不积极。但三月份出口必将有一个恢复。从年后广西百色地区所调走的五百吨出口桐油就足以说明出口已趋恢复正常。可以肯定说，3月份光是广西白色地区售出口桐油不会低于800吨。
   2006年，国际铜价每吨下跌了几万元，对覆铜板行业的影响很大，覆铜板销售价下跌，各家电厂家暂时减少了对覆铜板的采购量。迫使覆铜板行业在06年底，今年初进入调整期，覆铜板生产、销售出现了暂时的萎缩。上个月在与《桐油网》的李主编电话交谈中我说：“由于铜价下跌，覆铜板的生产和销售出现了暂时的萎缩，但是，正是因为铜价低，覆铜板的生产成本和销售价都应该低，它必会刺激消费。只要全球的家电行业产量不减产，对覆铜板的使用量就不会减少。并且，全球电视机的产量最近几年都有所增长。所以，没有理由担心07年覆铜板生产量会减少，年后它必将会有恢复。”
   2万吨的全国库存量不是多了，而是少了，它比05年足足少了1万吨。预计3-10月这8个月时间至少要有6000吨桐油的出口量，留给国内的就只有14000吨了。从最近几年国内桐油的消费量来看，每个月覆铜板行业桐油消费量在2500吨左右，其它工业用油及民用油在1000吨左右，全国每月桐油消费量应在3500吨左右，所以，今年将会有6000吨以上的桐油短缺。市场将会用价格杠杆调节，限制一部分桐油消费量以达到平衡。
   综上所述我对今年的桐油市场充满信心，桐油市场价格上调势在必行。今年桐油应该是一个牛市，我隐约地感觉到桐油价涨到14500/吨或者更高些已为期不远了！各位桐油经销商朋友们，您们是我们的衣食父母，及早地采取行动吧！您们和我们一道都将是今年桐油即得利益者！
                                                                                 2007.03.18

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alexbrouder · 发表于 2011-8-17 17:45:00

广东一县委书记短信施政引热议是作秀还是实干?
昨日上午9点许,连南瑶族自治县三江镇六联村委会书记伍记带照例收到一条短信,短信内容是连南县委书记崔建军的“一周感言”。几乎每周一,伍记带都会把“一周感言”读给村干听,随后转发到他们的手机上。“书记的感言很有启发性,对做好农村工作有帮助,beats by dre。”伍记带说,“一周感言”还让他们觉得与县领导拉近了距离,polo ralph lauren homme。
连南县地处粤北山区,交通不便,Casque dr dre,信息不发达,为了更好地指导基层开展各项工作,从去年5月起,县委书记崔建军通过手机短信平台,每周向干部发送消息向全体干部公布一周的主要工作并阐述上周工作感言,一年多来从未间断,至今已发送手机短信息1万多条。这样近乎“手机施政”的措施,在连南引起热议；而连南官方还把感言内容在网上公布,引起近万人次点击“拍砖灌水”。
“一周感言”发给200多干部
2008年下半年履新连南瑶族自治县后,有感于山区交通不便,以及信息不发达,崔建军通过近一年的时间熟悉当地工作情况后,从2009年5月起,开始自己动手撰写审阅好信息内容,franklin marshall,由县委办的信息中心通过移动手机信息平台,发送“一周感言”,每周一期,不管在本县或出差在外,从不间断,受众者是连南县四套班子成员、“两办”人员、副科以上单位一把手、乡镇党政一把手以及村(居)委书记、主任,合计200多人。
是作秀还是实干?
通过一年多来的发布,“一周感言”已经成为连南干部每周乐于收到的短信,他们普遍认为,领导能推心置腹表达心声,阐述见解,增加县委县政府工作的透明度,能更好团结干部发展连南,casque beats；有人认为这是通过手机“施政”,突破了时空的界限,很有创意。
有网民认为这是在“作秀”,而大多数网民则对此表示赞赏。网友“亚木”在“水石连州网”的“话说连阳”论坛中写道:读到崔书记的感言,值得深思。连南是少数民族地区,也是欠发达地区,连南要发展,班长是关键。有人可能认为崔书记是在“作秀”,我觉得非也。感言是他的心里话。依我看来,连南要更加地解放思想,县委县政府班子要多出思路,多出点子,出新招出实招。南方日报记者梁有华黄津特约通讯员陈昕
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but also how to do .

真实的网络情感——纪念两周年


BEIJING, July 29 – A Beijing bar is hosting a three-day blues festival starting on Friday, featuring a dozen bands and soloists from around the world.
Cafe CD Blues, on the Third Ring Road near the Agricultural Exhibition Center, and its previous location a few blocks further south, has been home to the city's alternative music scene since the 1980s.
It has been owned for nearly two years by veteran R&B singer and bass player "Big John" Zhang Ling.
Playing on Friday from 7 pm are Chinese band Little Inn, the US' Peter Muchinson Band, Bobo Stump from Japan, Matt Cooper (featuring Swiss Werner Fischer on guitar) and Defy, a Chinese rockabilly group. The night finishes at 1 am.
On Saturday, Joseph J. Johanna from New Zealand will perform folk blues from 3:30 pm, followed by Chinese band Out of Control, then Fernando Fidanza, the Peter Muchinson band again, Zhang Di and Lucy in an East meets West performance, and then the Big John Blues Band led by the bar's owner. The evening will finish with a blues jamming session from about 11:15 pm.
Fernando Fidanza will kick things off from 2:30 pm on Sunday with his Italian Blues. He'll be followed with a harp clinic and harmonica competition until 5 pm. Starting at 4:30 pm outside will be another set by Joseph J. Johanna, then Hong Kong's Chit Chat band, Hoochie Coochie Gentlemen, Bobo Stump and finally, The Chinese Hell Cats from 10:30 pm.
The cost of admission is 150 yuan ($23), including a free drink, for each day, or 400 yuan, including a free drink every day, for all three days.
"Beijing will have seen nothing like it," says one of the event's promoters, Beijing-based US businessman Craig Quick.
"This is a brilliant line-up of extremely talented musicians who know and love the blues inside out. It's going to be a tremendous occasion."
In the early 1980s, as bassist for Chinese rock legend Cui Jian, Zhang Lin developed a deep understanding of the development of modern music in China when Western music was considered "capitalist". He used to listen to The Beatles tracks smuggled in from the US.
Zhang studied bass in Australia and returned to China to collaborate with some of the top blues and jazz artists in the country, creating in 1995 China's first jazz fusion band, Tien Square. In 1996, he joined his old band mate, Cui, and International Monetary Fund vice-president John Anderson to form the first blues band in China, The Rhythm Dogs. He released his first solo album, Nu Ren De Ge (A Woman's Song), in 2008, and also runs a musician booking agency.
Many of the world's jazz greats have visited or performed at the CD Blues Cafe and Bar, including Wynton Marsalis, Kenny Garrett and Herbie Hancock's band.
Blues evolved from the unaccompanied vocal music and oral traditions imported from West Africa and rural tunes into a wide variety of styles and subgenres, with regional variations across the US.

reyesmario02 · 发表于 2011-8-16 00:03:00

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nwuia8y4l · 发表于 2011-8-3 14:59:00

According to the indictment ,maillot de bain femme, the evening of January 21 this year , Zhu marine life in the Virginia Tech graduate student first floor restaurant and coffee Yang Xin , suddenly knife attack ,occhiali da sole ray ban, the beheading of Yang Xin , Xin Yang died on the spot . On-site seven witnesses agreed that the incident did not occur before any altercation between the two and conflict .

school said the incident,Maillot de bain, Zhu ocean 25 years old, from Ningbo, China , in fall 2008 admission , studying agriculture and applied economics Ph.D. ,occhiali da sole gucci, and Xin Yang only 22 years old, from Beijing ,maillot de bain 2 pieces, January 8 this year,occhiali da sole carrera, has just arrived in the United States to learn accounting .

charged with murder of Chinese students studying in the United States : It is reported that female students were beheaded

Dr. girls beheaded in America : Biography struggled to catch the victim
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yan58788 · 发表于 2011-5-16 09:14:00

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yameiteyisu · 发表于 2011-5-12 09:25:00

路见帖子一声吼，该回帖时就回帖呀^_^

ghrdhdfhd · 发表于 2011-5-8 19:03:00

,马睿?

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whrttdmj84 · 发表于 2011-4-9 07:52:00

爱情和房子到底谁滋润了谁
天堂里也有分岔路　　刚刚登记结婚的肖涛和王玉最近买了一套150平米的公寓。肖涛是个摄影师，审美要求比较高，所以对房子的装修设计,从一个落点到另一个落点
NEW YORK, March 15 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday amid concern over Japan's nuclear disaster, even though Fed said the economy recovery was "on a firmer footing."
The major indices on Tuesday were lost more than 1 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 137.74 points, or 1.15 percent, to 11,855.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 14.52 points, or 1.12 percent, to 1,281.87. The Nasdaq declined 33.64 points, or 1.25 percent, to 2,667.33.
The Federal Reserve maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy on Tuesday, saying the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually.
The Fed also said that it would continue its 600-billion-dollar government bond-buying program as scheduled, and keep interest rates at very low levels for an extended period.
The remarks relieved investors' concern but the possible outcome of Japan disaster was still hovering around investors' mind.
After an explosion and a fire dramatically escalated Japan's disaster, dangerous levels of radiation began leaking from a broken nuclear plant Tuesday in Japan, investors worried that the nuclear crisis will have a negative impact on Japan's economy, the world's third largest. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell more than 1,000 points, or 10.55 percent on Tuesday.
As of stocks, Entergy Corp., an integrated energy company, lost 2.28 percent to 68.49 dollars in the morning trading but rebounded to 68.58 dollars in the afternoon, rising 0.14 percent.
General Electric Co, which has combined nuclear ventures with Hitachi Ltd. of Japan, fell 1.56 percent to 19.60 dollars.
Japanese shares traded in New York dropped as well. Toyota Motor Co, which said it would suspend production at all its Japanese car plants, dropped 4.23 percent then rebounded to 0.48 percent to 81 dollars.，王玉根本就插不上手，王玉一直想要一间自己的房子，可是肖涛却把王玉的那间房子设计为自己的工作室，于是，战争爆发了。　　什么是幸福？他们一致认为自由就是幸福。　　分析结果：相爱容易相处难，尤其是在同一屋檐下朝夕相处。在房屋设计中，没有在空间上安排给对方足够的自由空间。　　幸福帮助：在整个分析过程中,Franklin & Marshall Tee-Shirt Femme，他们的掌控能力比较差。他们在置业之初没有理性的分析户型与面积的关系,Franklin & Marshall Pantalon Femme，这样一对需要自由空间的夫妻，非常适合面积适中、可灵活调整的房子，比如近年来非常流行的小户型跃层，充分利用空间的隔断，让两人在家里也能充分享受到自由,monster beats。动什么也别动爱情　　小李和小金是典型的京漂一族，经过多年的努力,放下了渺小和卑劣
NEW YORK, March 15 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday amid concern over Japan's nuclear disaster, even though Fed said the economy recovery was "on a firmer footing."
The major indices on Tuesday were lost more than 1 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 137.74 points, or 1.15 percent, to 11,855.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 14.52 points, or 1.12 percent, to 1,281.87. The Nasdaq declined 33.64 points, or 1.25 percent, to 2,667.33.
The Federal Reserve maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy on Tuesday, saying the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually.
The Fed also said that it would continue its 600-billion-dollar government bond-buying program as scheduled, and keep interest rates at very low levels for an extended period.
The remarks relieved investors' concern but the possible outcome of Japan disaster was still hovering around investors' mind.
After an explosion and a fire dramatically escalated Japan's disaster, dangerous levels of radiation began leaking from a broken nuclear plant Tuesday in Japan, investors worried that the nuclear crisis will have a negative impact on Japan's economy, the world's third largest. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell more than 1,000 points, or 10.55 percent on Tuesday.
As of stocks, Entergy Corp., an integrated energy company, lost 2.28 percent to 68.49 dollars in the morning trading but rebounded to 68.58 dollars in the afternoon, rising 0.14 percent.
General Electric Co, which has combined nuclear ventures with Hitachi Ltd. of Japan, fell 1.56 percent to 19.60 dollars.
Japanese shares traded in New York dropped as well. Toyota Motor Co, which said it would suspend production at all its Japanese car plants, dropped 4.23 percent then rebounded to 0.48 percent to 81 dollars.，两人的事业都还不错，可是小李是个要强的女孩，她总给自己设计更高的目标，就拿买房子来说，小李想为结婚买一套100平方米的房子，可是小金认为只买个精装修的小户型就行了，两人因为这个矛盾一直没有结婚，最后的结果可想而知，小金退出了这场多年的恋爱。　　什么是幸福？他们认为不断的追逐幸福就是幸福，他们的生活被一个一个的梦想填满，追到的和追不到的梦想都是幸福。　　分析结果：要房子还是要爱情，这是一个非常现实的问题，因为双方的目标不在一个高度上,one of the country's three better,1 carriers
NEW YORK, March 15 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday amid concern over Japan's nuclear disaster, even though Fed said the economy recovery was "on a firmer footing."
The major indices on Tuesday were lost more than 1 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 137.74 points, or 1.15 percent, to 11,855.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 14.52 points, or 1.12 percent, to 1,281.87. The Nasdaq declined 33.64 points, or 1.25 percent, to 2,667.33.
The Federal Reserve maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy on Tuesday, saying the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually.
The Fed also said that it would continue its 600-billion-dollar government bond-buying program as scheduled, and keep interest rates at very low levels for an extended period.
The remarks relieved investors' concern but the possible outcome of Japan disaster was still hovering around investors' mind.
After an explosion and a fire dramatically escalated Japan's disaster, dangerous levels of radiation began leaking from a broken nuclear plant Tuesday in Japan, investors worried that the nuclear crisis will have a negative impact on Japan's economy, the world's third largest. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell more than 1,000 points, or 10.55 percent on Tuesday.
As of stocks, Entergy Corp., an integrated energy company, lost 2.28 percent to 68.49 dollars in the morning trading but rebounded to 68.58 dollars in the afternoon, rising 0.14 percent.
General Electric Co, which has combined nuclear ventures with Hitachi Ltd. of Japan, fell 1.56 percent to 19.60 dollars.
Japanese shares traded in New York dropped as well. Toyota Motor Co, which said it would suspend production at all its Japanese car plants, dropped 4.23 percent then rebounded to 0.48 percent to 81 dollars.，所以在房子和爱情面前，只有左右为难,franklin marshall boutique。　　幸福帮助：在整个分析过程中，他们的掌控能力得分很低，因为他们不仅不能把握自己的生活，连爱情也被现实生活磨得少之又少。为什么小李一定要100平方米的房子呢？因为100平方米的房子能给她带来足够的安全感。显然一个小户型不能满足小李的心理需求。所以幸福感与安全感是紧密相连的，如果小金还想挽回这段感情，可以与小李商量买一套100平方米的二手房,Franklin & Marshall Sweat。（本文来源：雪儿爱笔　编辑：）

a3136011 · 发表于 2011-3-28 15:25:00

轻轻的路过,轻轻的走,.
留下的就是我的香港脚!
淘宝刷钻

z1dferwet · 发表于 2011-3-21 15:36:00

这么久以来，偶的空间始终都是空洞无物！并非本人偷勤，实乃为了对得起“空间”这一名词，但本日，无可奈何，手痒脑发昏，故开篇于此！
大家都晓得，自己除了文学涵养颇高,moncler femme，英语程度超水准，人长得高大威猛风骚踢桶以外,Doudoune Moncler Homme，其余也就没什么了，偶的外号是猪头,franklin et marshall，除了有宾糖,mercurial vapor，小强之称外，最让偶自豪的是“猪哥哥”这一名称，此称号太贴我的形象描写了，感谢我那可恶十分的妹妹，也感激她给了我一个这么难能宝贵的称说，猪哥哥者，舍我取谁？大家必定不要跟我抢啊！
有沙发请大家抢着坐，偶会再接再厉,Doudoune Moncler Femme，再翻新篇D！感谢诸位捧场，也感谢CCTV,感谢深圳电台，感谢腾讯公司发明的这一空间写作平台，还要感谢隔壁街坊家的狗狗bouldered,mercurial，猫咪阿花,franklin marshall。。。。


besom your teeth the best time.

5 to 10 account already a day


Japanese police announced that day, as on 19 September, northeastern waters when the earthquake happened in Japan and the resulting tsunami caused 7197 deaths have been confirmed, 10905 people missing.

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