浅 析 松 香 后 市

吝气吃山

双降(霜降)的困惑

    双降----是指松香产量、需求的分别下降。从年初至今，这个问题一直困惑着整个行业的决策者们，对本来就难做的松香业无疑是雪上加霜。
! n" p3 a& q, y- a    松香产量会降多少吨？恐怕谁也说不清楚。随着霜降季节的临近，半产区将会进入实际性的扫尾工作，产量也会逐步透明。笔者带着今年松香到底减产多少这个问题，与业内很多人士探讨过，大家看法不一，且悬殊太大。有说减30万吨的，也有说减20万吨的。从雪灾、气候、脂价及目前的松脂、松香库存等诸多方面分析，估计今年全年松香减幅20-22万吨之间的说法应该成立。
    松香用量的降幅也是一个谜。全球经济走势影响着松香的需求，虽然这方面我们无法预测，但从今年1-8月份出口方面和内需来看，确没有想象的那么糟糕。如今年1-8月松香出口量为180202吨，与07年224503吨同比减少为44301吨；松香树脂1-8月份出口103767吨，与07年的105853吨同比仅减少2086吨；国内需求也在减少，但没有外销明显。从出口数据和已走过的近十个月情况分析，笔者认为：全年的松香需求减幅应在13吨以内。(出口减7万吨、内需减5万吨、深加工出口减1万吨)
    还有黄埔近年的年底库存量必须关注。04年5万吨；05年4.1万吨；06年5.2万吨；07年8.6万吨。看得出来，07年的年底库存比前三年的平均量多近4万吨。这4万吨移到今年消化，并冲消今年的产量。业内都非常明白，07年黄埔的松香库存是历年最集中的一年。
    今年是“产量大减，香价大涨”, “用量大减，必定大跌”的两种极端心态一直影响着松香市场。心魔最容易使人失去理智，今年影响松香行情的因素特别多，全球的金融危机，松香出口退税的取消，资本政策的变化，原油价格起起落落，劳动力成本也在不断的变化等，这些困惑都需要我们保持平常的心态，理智公平看待不同的因素。
/ [! f/ a# l  c6 G: q" L    对于松香市场来说，笔者认为：我们好象是在看油画，近看时是黑乎乎的，远看就很美了。
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. c8 s( C6 h2 m2 p- F5 I6 ?                                                                 (以上是个人观点，仅供讨论)

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12 12 evening, in Hangzhou in the employ of Xuancheng Yanghua Bin and his wife who go to the supermarket to buy things, put two young daughters to stay in rented house. They did not expect that the sudden occurrence of an accident: two daughters, falling from the 3rd floor, 6-year-old daughter broke into serious injuries, while the 5-year-old daughter, still unconscious, yet out of danger.  
both sisters falls

accident sisters, my sister called Yuanyuan (a pseudonym), 6 years old; sister called Ting-Ting (pseudonym), 5 years old this year.  
- t) i0 m: Y6 \7 M: E( T! ` Yang Huabin said he has been working 10 years in Hangzhou, a 4 is good luck renting in the vicinity of Hangzhou, the house on the 3rd floor, which has a small bathroom. December 12 evening, because the cold weather, he arrived early to his two daughters to bed. 20:40 or so, both had fallen asleep watching her,beats by dr dre, he and his wife to buy something next to a small supermarket.  
8 r+ p/ `( |2 X9 k- P# z came back, the couple found the door open, shouting how not agree, thinking may hurt. At this point, a nearby villagers said breathlessly ran upstairs and two children out downstairs. Went downstairs to see Yuanyuan Yang Huabin wife crawled on the ground, covered in blood; Tingting lying motionless on the ground, no consciousness.  
a pair of husband and wife went to the Second Hospital, Hangzhou,monster beats by dre, daughter to the rescue. The morning of December 13, after the rescue, Yuanyuan finally woke up, she said, the parents went out, my sister suddenly woke up, get up and clamoring for Mom and Dad. Later, my sister did not know how the door locked, the gates open, more anxious sister, ran to the bathroom, trying to climb out the window to find Mom and Dad.  
Yuanyuan said, Ting-Ting will fall to seeing, and she hurried over to grab her legs, did not expect that not only did not pull, and he is followed fell out. Sister is a direct fall to the concrete floor,casque beats, and some of her more fortunate, first off the awning on the second floor, the buffer a bit before fall.  
: [/ d, i/ f, Y, T couple in trouble

has been repeated this sentence.  
8 `+ w8 F3 H8 \1 ~) p, _9 @ doctor said, Yuanyuan were saved, the situation has markedly improved, but later the surgery, and other costs may be 5 million. Ting-Ting's situation even more worried, we have not yet out of danger, and treatment is difficult to estimate.  
! l5 b! \5 l3 R Yang Huabin is farming in his hometown, helping people to run transportation in Hangzhou, the monthly income of 3,000 yuan, since the two daughters to Hangzhou, the wife at home to take care of them, thanks to a four 3,000 yuan to maintain it life. Two daughters after the accident, has spent over 50,000 yuan for medical expenses. Huanguo Lai had a chance of them from the grief, but also for the sisters to worry about huge medical bills.  
$ s& M. a3 F$ V. d" ]" ^/ q/ N  [ huge medical treatment costs and immeasurable, once thought to Yang Huabin couple to give up. According to reports, although doctors said the possibility of Tingting great save, but yesterday morning, the family decided to give up after careful consideration was the treatment and refused to sign a single surgery.  
5 T( Q* _% y* }  y netizens raise hopes


Then, after learning of the plight of Yang, 13 December, interviews back in the micro-Bo Li, Ming-Sheng made a piece of information, assistance to the majority of users on behalf of Yang Huabin.

松香人松香魂

说我？

Daisy

专业人士~！

松香人松香魂

云南松香确实给两广造成一定冲击，但没有必要夸大，这种现象又不是百年一遇，我想很多业内都见怪不怪了。关键在于，市场已经如此，你如何操作。

尘土

老兄好久不见了，最近忙什么，最近走势如何，分析一下吧，听听您的高见

松香人松香魂

现在很明显是两广更难熬。

三人行

看看那一边能坚持住！