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目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显

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楼主
发表于 2008-8-7 22:59:00 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |正序浏览 |阅读模式
目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显,具体分析和理由如下(只供讨论,不作参考):
+ w- m0 D* \- j; Y* Y- n; j8 t1.主动权偏向卖方:前期松脂减幅远大于松香需求的减少已成事实.表现在许多工厂同期对比减收超过一半(大厂减收更大,部分万吨厂至今不足千吨),而市场需求数量不可能减少一半,从目前市场供求角度看主动权正在偏向卖方.
) _3 D& t- G% t" E/ @; k2.反复试探证实大减产:最近工厂接二连三降低松脂价格,其结果很快反弹,而且反弹力度一次比一次大,足以说明脂量的确偏少,可以说今年大减产已成定局.: f( i2 d: K. G/ f( q
3.短期内需求将会明显拉动:在松脂大减产的时候,取消松香出口退税,尤其是在合同备案时期内,将加速国外用户锁定全年用量和成本(目的规避政策带来成本增加),因而对下阶段市场需求将会产生明显拉动,同时政策也会有利于刺激国内深加工用量增加.
2 |9 m  l' Z1 v1 C; @4.争取时间就是争取效益:今年余下采脂和收购时间不多了,许多产区时间已过三分一,部分产区将快过一半了,用全年供求时间计算,现在买卖双方均显得十分被动,预料下阶段谁也不会再失去时间和市场了.
# r* A9 M& ^1 O8 O5.内需价格将带动外需上扬:国内较大深加工厂一直在正常生产,其每期采购的热松香,价格实际上接受松香厂"倒挂"成本,而且松节油需求存在缺口,价格居高不下支撑着市场,,因而现阶段香价跟随脂价上涨已是大势所趋.
. M( t; S9 m- t8 s' ~- `/ T, f6 ]3 _6.卖方对后市信心较大:由于前阶段松脂处在大减产的时期,工厂几次打压脂价均失败,必然增强了脂农/脂贩/工厂对后市信心,因而越来越多的人认为:农历七月十四这批松脂,如果工厂松脂数量继续偏少,将会是新一轮涨价的开始,俗话说风水轮流转,说不定今年将是脂农/脂贩/松香厂最有机会翻身的一年.
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39#
发表于 2011-6-20 11:59:00 | 只看该作者
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发表于 2011-6-14 21:35:00 | 只看该作者
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发表于 2011-6-8 20:05:00 | 只看该作者
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发表于 2011-5-15 14:53:00 | 只看该作者
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34#
发表于 2008-9-11 09:53:00 | 只看该作者

回复:目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显

还不至于想05年那样,我好几个朋友在那年血本无归最后只能转行搞砖厂
33#
 楼主| 发表于 2008-8-21 23:43:00 | 只看该作者

回复:目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显

现在有些国内外用户开始担心今年中国松香市场会重演05年的历史.
32#
发表于 2008-8-20 13:02:00 | 只看该作者

回复:目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显

鬼佬为适应中国松香涨价,已经开始大幅度提高终端产品的销售价,估计很快会拉动中国松香的价格。
31#
发表于 2008-8-20 09:23:00 | 只看该作者

回复:目前松香涨价的动力越来越明显

真没必要太过悲观,其实现在难做的不只是松香,别的产品一样遇到这样那样的困难,夸大困难并不能真正解决困难,逃避困难也只能将困难推迟。
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