[讨论]新桐籽桐油的市场行情

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         新桐籽己上市，桐油行业专家们有必要讨论新桐籽桐油行情。
        首先应该感谢桐油网为全国桐油企业提供的贵阳会议，此会议我也报了名并邀请几位人仕，只因特殊情况没有去成。我在网上看了会议上专家们的发言深受感动。我1998年购电脑上网时很少查到相关的桐油信息，就全国最大的油脂化工网上也是空白，现发展到每年有会议，每天有论谈，时时有信息，广西桐油网辛苦功高。为了支持桐油网壮大发展，为了桐油行业兴旺发达，本人对今年的新桐籽桐油行情发表一些意见。
- }) s/ k' E; A  k. Y6 E0 r     一   过去情况简述：（1）2005年至2006年上半年全国各地桐油成本价超过8000元/吨的生产企业亏损已成定局，记得南宁会议上有专家已提示大家价格要回归到8000元底部，而大多数都因15000元/吨以上的价格冲昏了头，心里防线定在10000元/吨，结果大家都亏，后来击破8000元/吨后大家都不去过问，结果让那些事先有准备的多方在6800至7000元/吨的价位防守成功。（2）2005年的旧桐油一部大企业是为了保证客户供应而保持一定存货，而大部分都是因成本价9000元/吨以上不愿亏损而存货。九仟圆的成本价加税叁佰元加包装肆佰圆也就是九仟柒佰元，为什么到新桐籽上市前凡走不出这个价格呢？我看主要凡是供求关系，人民币升值出口快速减少，前几年因电子行业兴旺提价进购桐油迫使一般用油行业停产停用或改变配方，请不要忘记原来电子行业用油量很少时期基本上是一般行业每年将油亳光。等等一切大家很清楚。（3）新桐籽各地产量据有关信息是南减北增，为此我去了南面一次看到山上的桐籽结的凡可以。又因四川等地干旱减产之言又有干桐湿木之说。按实际情况，全国从今年起只要维持在每吨桐油一万元吨以下的市场价格，桐油每年都会减产，（桐山不会增加，农户不去管理，无利企业无政府及银行支持，使企业自生自灭，此情况从2005年已开始，没有三年没有希望），而需求市场也在同时减少，大有超过桐籽减产速度。
    二  个人看法：（1）2006年至2007年是桐油调整巩底的一年，也是整个行业比较难做的一年。首先因价格低桐籽难以收起来，形成相持市场，就是生产企业想起动市场，也不可能象去年那样以1.2至1.3元/市斤的桐籽收购价格去起动市场，1元的收购价市场风险就很大了。（2）资金短缺，生产的桐油不论价格高低送货上门风险加大。据了解各地2005年生产企业及经销商桐油货款一时难以收回的数额很大，特别是生产企业最多，预计2006年至2007年会继续扩大。（3）一部生产企业已在2005至2006降价调整中无力起动生产，一部分转产。一些经销商因无利可投退出市场，一些经销商因资金紧张而力不从心，等等一切更进一步加大了桐油市场的资金困难。
     三 对策：
9 S% e" _  J9 m) F, u9 h      1：生产企业要稳住收购价格向农户做好宣传，要让籽商和农户清楚市场行，一个市场的调整不是几个月的事情，一般需要2至3年，特别是桐油市场，因桐油是工业用油不受国家经济调空，价格升上天降下地都不会受到调控，因此桐油只能随工业景气度及市场需求而走，任何抵抗都是无用的。你认为今天的价格低它明天更低，你不管理桐树或把树砍掉，等你砍掉后它的价格就涨了，野生植物也有市场回归调整期，何况是大宗人工植物呢？
3 I  |2 S! w0 Y2 M. G       2：生产企业将桐油成本价调到7000元/吨，加包400元加税费300元加至销方运费300元合计8000元/吨，我看对方8500至8800元接收应该问题不大，经销商销给大用户9300元/吨，小用户9500元/吨以上应该没有问题，这样大家都有利可投，并可以此价格吸引一般用油企业加大用量。这样虽然对籽农的收入有短期影响而从长期来看可进一步稳定籽农的收益。当然市场谁都说不准，价格以7000圆为基础下调1000元上升1000都是正常现象。
      3：在2006上半年成本价9000元下降到8000元时本人就在论谈中讲过，“在市场向下调整阶段今日的最低价也是明天的最高价，大家都把自已的钱看珍贵一点”。今天我又重升一句，人民币是个好东西每天都在升值，各位老板们好好守住，在经营中尽量把利润空间看大一点，不要以争夺市场分额而不计成本，不要当商场上的英雄。

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Villagers play well

4 f0 X# s9 s( N/ p( @- V □ correspondent Chow is Wang Weihao trainee reporter intern Hao Zhaoyang Wen Jin Yuantu phone number 139 × × × × 4011 readers sent a text message said: Chung Dong New Area in the act Longzihu before the cattle at the Wei River Village, Chen San Kiu, Yaoqiao Cun, and several other villagers crazy on the river wells, drilling wells for drinking water purposes is neither, nor for irrigation, but for compensation. Wei River soon as the transformation, each hole can get 2000 yuan compensation, has played nearly a thousand wells. This blatantly hurt the government Taibuyinggai!  
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- W! i% c9 p# D; s/ {3 j* { river on both sides of a step well

Yesterday afternoon, reporters driving along the side parallel with the Henan Wei Wenyuan Road, Zhengzhou City,Coach Outlet, traveling east, I saw The Catcher in the Wei river,coach outlet online, an oral motor-pumped wells are lined up in the recent two wells within a whisker, but also the farthest away from tens of meters. These motor-pumped wells are formed by the cement tube sockets, the diameter of the wellhead are about 30 cm concrete pipe protruding from the ground, highly uneven (Figure), the wellhead on the most pressing large stones, depth of about 7 meters, bottom you can see the water.  
; U/ C0 ^! C/ g6 u+ l% `" ~- G& l7 I this scene also appears in parallel with the side of Hebei Wei Yao bridge on the road. In addition,coach outlet online store, the wheat fields in the Wei river, the woods is the well-head clouds, the size of half a basketball court area, as much as eight motor-pumped well,coach outlet store online, almost step by a well. At this point, the road from time to time passing tractor pulling drilling tools. Reporters rough estimate, in the Wei River 5 km and more within the wellhead up to nearly a thousand.  
& Z8 C  Y0 d* n/ c3 i" u* }* D said the government should control of the Wei River Wei River flows through the first cattle Village, Chen San Kiu, Yaoqiao Cun, and several other villagers to get 2000 yuan compensation, a week ago began a frenzied drilling in their own fields, dozens of drilling machine arranged a slip, The villagers said, playing a well costs only 500 yuan, a net can earn 1,500 yuan.  
survey
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$ `7 a% p0 m7 o3 ~ indeed related to compensation policy

yesterday afternoon, this reporter went to Chung Dong New Area,coach handbags, Dragon Lake office in the land office, a staff surnamed Wang, said the original state have a compensation, for roads, river training villagers occupied the land, the legal existence of motor-pumped wells, each eye compensation of 2,000 yuan. The office land Xusuo Zhang said, how motor-pumped wells on the land occupied compensation from the village according to their own circumstances.  
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4 K' D. _' N7 I Longzihu office, according to Urban Science Xuke Zhang introduced, Wei River, a river landscape will be built, the river width of 120 meters, need to occupy the former cattle Dragon Lake Village Office, Chen San Kiu, Yao Bridge village some villagers in several villages of the land, river training has just begun.  
argument
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illegal wells difficult to be compensated

; H2 Y3 d( F; U' L; L Government will not compensate. procedures, no legal formalities to drill wells, they will be punished, but illegal to play well and will not give compensation.  (edit: SN026)
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Southern News reporter Liu Chunlin
& F6 {) ~  I3 ^' { truck towed stroller Hong Kong is currently the case with the latest developments. News from the Shenzhen City People's Procuratorate show that Hong Kong drivers Liang Guanbiao recent accident has been the prosecution on suspicion of homicide prosecution, the current court case is still waiting for, they will be on trial.  
( `( T* U, q& `0 m# r5 N is the Present case has been brought to the indictment stage, the court will fix a date for trial in accordance with procedures.  
swept away by truck drivers in Hong Kong case of baby carriages past 4 months have passed since the time, but many questions about the case and the arrest did not get to the bottom with Liang Guanbiao. Although Liang Guanbiao has now been brought on suspicion of manslaughter of the indictment, but the baby's body was actually abandoned by the middle of fall or be Liangguan Biao is still questionable. Liang Guanbiao accountable to the public security organs, he did not know the baby halfway fall, but that the baby had died, he threw away Tong Long Hill tunnel did not see the stroller when the baby's body.  
1 B- f* W/ B+ k2 i9 C6 }5 D area families of the victims, said the baby was swept away, he had tied a belt, if not man abandoned halfway through the baby can not fall, so they suspected the driver halfway postmortem. To prove this point, the police had specifically purchased the same style stroller test, but so far inconclusive. All have to wait until the final when the trial court found.  
convicted sentenced to three years minimum
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( k5 Z- f( Y7 q- m' k) W& c under the According to criminal law,beats by dr dre, intentional murder charges, will be sentenced to death, life imprisonment or imprisonment for more than ten years; the circumstances are minor,beats by dre, three to ten years in prison.  
' R( V! Y2 B) a) y+ P Liang Guanbiao whether acts of intentional homicide in connection directly or indirectly caused by intentional homicide, jurisprudence has been controversial. Some experts believe that, according to witness statements, Liang Guanbiao halfway off in view after the incident, reminding passers-by in a car crying baby under the case is still driving to escape, is suspected to direct intentional killing.  
media interviews after the prosecution said Liang Guanbiao behavior is suspected of indirect murder, but prosecutors also believe that Liang Guanbiao knowing that the victim was caught in the vehicle could roll alive,casque dr dre, knowing that the survival of victims of trailer driving will result in the case of death of the victim, the victim was still driving trailer vehicle, the behavior is once again the victim intentionally harm behavior.  
event playback

found the baby underneath the rolls are still driving fast away

Liang Guanbiao 32-year-old, who lives in Pak Tin Sham Shui Po in Hong Kong.  
According to the prosecution to identify, at 7:11 on April 25, 2010 Xu, Liang Guanbiao suspect driving plate container dealers in Hong Kong and Guangdong ZEB64 by Busha Road, Shenzhen City, the hotel section of Kam Air, and pedestrian Li Mou collision, resulting in the implementation of Li Mou baby stroller and car Zhou Moumou be involved in the vehicle. Liang Guanbiao not been stayed and continue to drive forward.  
Huijia department when reaching the road section where the red lights stop and wait, some people find the vehicle rolls with baby hands and feet will move, accompanied by crying sound, reminding Liang Guanbiao off view. Liang Guanbiao leaned over the line to the vehicle body right rear view, that the vehicle rolls have babies, but did not take any relief act, quickly left the scene driving the baby trailer. Tong Long Hill container dealers out of the tunnel to escape out of customs inspection, Liang Guanbiao get off the view, the folder will remain on the bottom of the stroller in the car parts discarded.  
4 28, the public security organs in the Tong Long Tunnel Zhou Moumou victims bodies were found inside the wreckage. May 4, the Shenzhen Municipal Public Security Bureau on suspicion of murder, brought the case in Shenzhen City Procuratorate approved the arrests of suspects Liang Guanbiao. May 4, the Shenzhen City People's Procuratorate on suspicion of homicide suspects Liang Guanbiao to approve the decision of arrest.

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