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高价松香背后看到了什么?????

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发表于 2011-1-16 17:08:00 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |正序浏览 |阅读模式
松香从200910月份开始价格一路飙升,从6000/吨涨到20104月份的16500/吨,在4月份中旬开始由于新松香即将上市,价格有所回落,到8月低价格价格触底,到达9500/吨,然而8月是生产的中期,8月份中旬开始,价格逆势反弹,以不是一路飙升可以描述,有人称为变态,也有人称为疯狂,还有人说是过山车。到201010月份下旬价格到了20000/吨,11份上旬甚至有过21000/吨,1112月份价格相对稳定,基本都在19500-20500之间波动,不过元旦之后,人们又感受到了新的一波涨价潮了,可以再次认识松香市场的内在魔力。
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松香高价,可以说是很多原因造成的,有市场的原因,也有人为的推动,有气候的影响,也有国家调控的作用。现在松香高价,甚至是超高价位已经形成,我们需要考虑的是:在高价背后,未来会怎么样,松香行业未来的发展会怎么样,是回归理性回归自然的软着陆,还是一夜崩盘引起行业地震?
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一、松香在经历了2009年下半年中国西南大旱,2010年上半年中国西南连续洪涝灾害之后,根据各个方面的数据显示,中国2010年松香产量没有根本性的减少。究其原因:掠夺式的开采是主因。常年出油量少的,松树树龄不到开采年限的都没有开采,今年有报道,很多地方松树直径在10公分一下的都被采脂。2010脂农是赚钱了,但是对于小松树,过早采脂,其抗病虫害能力将大大降低,其生长速度将大大降低,其采脂量也将受到很大的影响;

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二、松香高价,使得松香行业市场更加混乱。松香厂缺斤少两,以次充好已不再是新闻、在利益的驱动下出卖良心违背商业道德自主毁约的情况也不少见、行业瓶颈被打破(在松脂收购价格在19000/吨的时侯,市场上竟然出现了价位在17000/吨的松香,当然质量方面可想而知),等等问题不仅仅影响松香行业的正常发展,也将给其他相关行业带来不可估量的损失;
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三、松香行业下游产业链中的油墨、涂料、胶粘剂、油漆等行业如果2009年之前是暴利行业而言,那么现在对于绝大多少油墨、涂料、胶粘剂、油漆生产商来说进入了微利时代,甚至有些厂家进入了亏损阶段。因为成品的价格要么涨不了,要么涨点点,反正和松香的涨幅和涨速相比相差太远;在成本的压力下,下游商家一方面努力寻求替代产品,减少松香的用量,另一方面努力调整或者开发新的配方,总之以降低成本为目标,减少企业对松香的依赖和减少松香对企业的束缚;
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四、松香现在可以说是高价,也可以说是超高价位,相信在未来的某个时间还是要回归理性回归自然,只是其方式如何值得商榷。如果是长时间的缓慢的有序的逐步的下降,相信企业不分大小,都能将其风险消化或者分散;如果是一夜崩盘,那么对于持有大量松香的厂家或者经销商可以说就是就是一种灾难,对于行业的影响还未知。不过我相信一夜崩盘,必将使得整个松香行业进行一轮大的洗牌,抗风险能力低的企业最终宣布破产或者是被收购的命运,行业品牌必将进一步集中

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五、松香高价对于松香人来说是赚钱的好时机,但是对于一个企业来说,在赚钱之余,更重要的是要增强企业的市场竞争力,强化企业的核心竞争力。中国松香加工企业在10000家左右,但是能进行松香深加工的企业就很少了。利用有利的时机进行企业的产业升级技术改造是一个有实力企业需要考虑的问题;

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六、世界松香看中国,中国松香看华南,华南松香看广西。广西的松香行情,特别是出口的行情很大程度上决定了世界松香市场的发展方向。松香高价,需要中国企业抱团作战,在保证质量和服务的同时要努力提高中国松香企业在世界的话语权和定价权
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松香高价已经是个事实,其有形无形的作用和影响需要每个相关的人努力去认识去体会。现在看来松香高价未必是福,松香高价也未必是祸关键还是看松香人如何去应对,如何去引导,把握全局,利用所有能利用的信息进行科学的分析并进行预测,尽量将风险化于无形,将行业推向正常有序的发展轨道。
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13#
发表于 2016-10-29 08:50:32 | 只看该作者
好贴,双手赞成!9 u6 P* e. `& K. |6 Q0 a. _  V
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12#
发表于 2016-6-26 07:27:09 | 只看该作者
辛苦!辛苦!!!# f- _0 M+ D7 U1 i) s7 w( q
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11#
发表于 2011-11-12 12:13:48 | 只看该作者
继续关注一下这方面的信息( n* M! a% d: p+ u0 \$ W
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http://www.banjiagz.com 广州大众搬家公司
10#
发表于 2011-8-31 09:07:00 | 只看该作者
现在看来楼主还是分析的很对路啊?
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9#
发表于 2011-8-10 18:31:00 | 只看该作者
蜗牛,chaussure louboutin
5 Y# z# v1 J7 ?' G9 s' D/ Y* D一只蜗牛正在路上行进,franklin marshall,结果後面来了一只乌龟从他身上辗了过去,polo ralph lauren pas cher。後来蜗牛被送医急救,franklin marshall pas cher。当蜗牛神智恢复清醒後警察人员问他当时情况,franklin et marshall。蜗牛回答说:“我不记得了,polo ralph lauren,一切都太快了……”
5 w$ G$ W* B* x* K相关的主题文章:
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1 v: E" J0 o. g2 E( ]0 }$ X   突破施工难点- g. J5 U5 Q1 E* {3 q* ?) s0 V
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   said Lichtman. &quot
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- R4 q: Y! n. N" x5 B, o+ I' h, M   //www.writerscontent.com
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8#
发表于 2011-6-14 00:01:00 | 只看该作者
1987, the former Qing Xinzhou county towns Estate (now Ngan Shing Street, Xinzhou District, Zhu Qing security community) Xishui County, the village committee and the original production of transport of yellow sand ridge horse the company signed a sale and purchase agreement dredge boat, agreed to pay the village committee boat, the horse ridge yellow sand production and transport companies should be paid before the end of December 1989 paragraph 35 million boat. Since then, the village committee according to the contract of delivery. September 1987, Ma ridge yellow sand production and transport companies six Xishui County was placed under the management of township government of God,monster beats, after the company name changed to yellow sand Xishui County Township of God six production companies. The two sides agreed to pay the shipping date models, the yellow sand production company owed money ship more than 220,000 yuan. Ship models village for many years unsuccessful recourse. In 1997, the Qing An Liushen rural village to the Government to court. January 1998, Wuhan Maritime Court ruling Liushen township government money to pay 223,000 yuan boat. Liushen Township appealed his conviction to the Provincial Higher People's Court of Appeal, High Court ruled in May 1998, upheld the conviction.  
* R# U9 D) W9 u# L  x+ ^9 d! x1 i clear security village on June 25, 1998 to the Wuhan Maritime Court for enforcement, maritime courts to enforce a period of time, in October 18, 1999 commissioned the Xishui County Court. pen event of default and then really do not know how to go on.  
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8 G; M3 `! \6 m; t; ]: x! {! y Xishui County Court in charge of the case, Zhang,beats de dr dre, vice president of executive, said the company is affiliated to the original yellow sand under the name of the township government, and later the company reported annual inspection is not due to be revoked for many years, the court God, this decision by the six township government responsibility for the assumption of debt repayment. However, six of God has no capacity to town to the ground has been delayed. In 2001, the adjustment of administrative divisions of Xishui county, township six God is revoked, the former administrative areas were placed under the jurisdiction of Lanxi town and another town. Recent court clearing the backlog of work being undertaken for the case,casque beats, the Court has closed down three months ago, according to the original six gods idle township government office building, if the auction is expected also on the arrears to.
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7#
发表于 2011-5-23 17:37:00 | 只看该作者
Pm, City Public Security Bureau, plainclothes detachment of the mobile police brigade Fanba Li Sheng , Wu Liguo Fanba and others in the Castle Peak area ,casque beats by dr dre, we found Red Steel City bus station next to the McDonald's restaurant , there is a middle-aged man through the window and aim at familiar faces Station. After 10 minutes, the station flow suddenly increased, the man begins with the restaurant out of a document hanging on the neck, trailing on the train platform to the crowd, soon to work from a man in Jiangsu Han- shirt to the right pocket Bachu A cell phone, Li Sheng , Wu Liguo as soon arrested him. + i! U. L: [& Y) n
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Who knows , this listing Fanba police scuffled with the man , refused to wear handcuffs , shouting his mouth : Police took a look at documents , laughing : The following inscription was actually shocked ,
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/ @  X3 V! F1 V" ~ After investigation, the men aged 50, a veteran pickpocket Department of Castle Peak area , but had pickpocketing 9 criminal processing, most recently in 2008 by plainclothes detachment Fanba Second Battalion captured. According to his account ,dr dre casque, again for fear of jail ,casque dre, he came up with posing as
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6#
发表于 2011-5-23 17:36:00 | 只看该作者
panic: The Clone phone number can be stolen privacy 8 g6 F* Z9 p; [1 G( L- h- R

1 _! W0 Z6 T- }: n* U0 Q4 e I do not clone someone else's phone number, but how do I clone people?  5 p( V- m2 \& t! g/ h! j
Qian Riwan 11 o'clock, Mr. Chen received a strange number of sent text message: Please call: 1597910 ××××。: He is at an advertising company as key positions, I usually work by telephone arrangements, many of which telephone company's trade secrets involved. If your numbers really been cloned, and that the company's trade secrets may be leaked, will inevitably lead to great losses. huge negative impact.  " u) \+ @- x! b9 R6 b
dialogue: first, to pay 1,800 yuan and then do business 4 `0 ^. J: W+ F
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cloned cell phone number with the base extension is a theory?  ) H# |1 T& z  B; B( g

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parties to respond to 0 o/ _/ S1 S% H, Z2 R# ^
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operator: it can not simply clone a hoax
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8 _' |1 m: u4 r technical explanation: phone card is a card now One, the confidentiality of each card very ' n3 O7 [  ^( C5 H8 J$ }7 d& r
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; ~0 i8 R- ^, k# H Law: The Clone cheated protected by law 4 o6 Q/ M9 G( u5 I& J6 M
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interpretation of the law: No other clone is a violation of the privacy of others
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police Hint: that doubt to the police
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Su Pan Ramp Bridge police station,monster beats dr dre, said via cell phone text messages sent in such advertising, the public can not easily believe that money will be remitted to the each other. At the same time,casque by dre, it is best not to use the machine to the other party call back if they feel a certain credibility, can restore landline or other telephone surveys. If it is found in the survey doubt, should be immediately reported to the local police station, the public security department investigation.  
+ _2 T: ?! T$ Y/ C similar cases: Kelong Ka per 2,500 yuan
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2 23, a Gansu people receive a 2,casque beats,500 yuan and 2,500 yuan, said first into the designated account, there will be a technician will be processed cell phone, a software CD, a copy good SIM card to prearranged locations. (According to Western Economic Daily)
5#
发表于 2011-5-22 08:48:00 | 只看该作者
好文章!楼主厉害!
地板
发表于 2011-4-1 10:20:00 | 只看该作者
好贴
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