未来松香,供需失衡

吝气吃山 · 发表于 2010-11-9 10:26:00

                              未来松香  供需失衡

业内有一种说法：“现在的松香市场在明显供大于求时，为什么价格却一直往上涨，真是看不懂了。”笔者与经销商和松香用户交流看法时，这种声音也时有出现，本来嘛，现状也是如此。市场到底是供大于求还是供小于求？业界一直争议不断，笔者却倾向于后者。

松香是季节性产品，如果片面地按产季看市场，即不合理又不科学。今年产的松香必须备留到明年新松香上市之前，应该看未来的供应量与需求量是否平衡？

笔者及团队近日就今年的松香情况作了以下供需分析，供香友讨论。

一、计算松香的供需时间范围：2010年11月1日至2011年5月底(新香上市前)，共七个月。
二、松香可供量：未来七个月的松香可供量估计在31万吨以下。包括现在我国的松香库存；工厂及脂农、脂贩囤有的松脂；尚有产区后期两个月、云南后期七个月能产松脂量。需要说明的是，未来的松脂按每市斤7-9元的收购价框算，低于或高于此价其产量会略有变化。
三、松香需求量：按每吨松香在19000-21000元的价格区间运行，未来七个月松香的需求量估计在33万吨以上。包括出口、深加工及国内需求。注：松香的需求量会随着价格的高低而发生变化。

即：可供量31万吨﹣需求量33万吨=缺口
特别说明：
   ①松香可供量及需求量的数据是根据考察、交流、对比、分析而估计的，不是凭空想象。
         ②松香可供量31万吨为最大数，也就是说乐观数。如果有分析超出31万吨，并具有数据说服，本人乐意出具详细数据与其探讨。
         ③松香需求量33万吨为最小数，也就是说保守数。已考虑过“价高量缩”的因素。
         ④从历年看，每年六月份的当月松香产量是不能满足当月松香需要的。
      上述理由成立的话，明年上半年(新香上市之前)的松香供求关系将会失衡，缺口明显。不难想象，今年如此之高价位的松香，工厂都选择惜售，正是看准了明年青黄不接时的供求缺口。
高价位也潜伏着高风险，对持货者而言，却操着卖“白粉”的心啊！

（松香网特约观察员——吝气吃山。本文未经本人同意，不得转载！）

春花秋月最迷 · 发表于 2016-10-19 16:20:47

呵呵，不错

闲着的鱼7ij · 发表于 2016-10-17 03:28:11

谢谢你啊，好帖子不顶不行

brudgy10 · 发表于 2011-8-22 23:41:00

,doudoune moncler homme
　　受审时，夫妻俩均承认了指控,doudoune moncler femme。最终，法院认定他们的行为均已构成盗窃罪,coach outlet store，且盗窃数额较大，据此作出上述判决。

　　28岁的于某和37岁的刘某都是北京市人，案发前均无职业。法院查明，从去年11月至今年1月间,coach outlet store online，于某夫妻经分工,Doudoune Moncler，由于某使用改锥撬锁，刘某负责望风，先后6次到宣武区韩家胡同、陕西巷及朝阳区呼家楼南里入室盗窃，共窃得现金2300元、电脑主机3台、手机1部、相机2部及银行卡1张。经鉴定，以上财物共计价值7000余元,Moncler。今年1月6日，于某夫妻被查获归案。
相关的主题文章：

小薇在襄州区张湾镇打工

Truck driver abandoned the vehicle and fled after the incident was captured more than 10 years

xznru4366 · 发表于 2011-8-8 19:48:00

strange woman sent a text message to 6,000 yuan, said to be selling Proved,coach outlet store, some people believed it, putting themselves in the design of the trap criminals. After 20 days of hard work and chase provinces, Lianhu police has finally cracked this seduce robbery, gang crimes described the case of women into prostitution.
building materials business Dan In a text message, Dandan claiming financial difficulties, need money, willing to use their first night for money, and the asking price of 6,000 yuan. Yang and June 28, Yang and
Yang did not think so, 29 at 3 pm, four men armed with knives suddenly burst into their room,coach outlet online, four people, speaking in Sichuan accent, claiming to be and said, They also said that if they are given $ 180,000, even if the matter. Yang was very scared, and quickly said he did not so much money, so he can find a friend the next day by 100,000 yuan to them. Four men, after listening to the words of a very angry Yang, Yang immediately be searched for, found and removed forcibly carried him 4,700 yuan in cash and two bank cards, and forced him to say that bank cards. Then, by two men and By transfer, cash, etc., the group will eventually Yang 130,000 yuan on two bank cards all away.
the group left, Yang Lianhu police Bureau of Criminal Investigation unit to the police.
police chase provinces seduce robbery gang

After receiving the alarm, Lianhu Bureau of Criminal Investigation set up task force launched by the detection unit. Through the retrieval time of the incident the hotel surveillance video, police found four suspects and the victim at the same time stay at the hotel, their registration ID cards Chongqing Moumou. Subsequently, police investigators went to Chongqing to find Moumou, but Moumou call identity has been lost for several months, and identified by the victim, Li Moumou crime suspects are ruled out by the police,coach outlet stores, his identity card system was stolen.
After several months of investigation, the panel found Moumou police in Chongqing, a number of recent Internet and check hotel information,Coach Handbags, and links to Moumou himself, the police realized that he himself at this stage did not check hotels and the Internet. That analysis, is likely to be suspects in ID card holders Moumou activities, the panel decided rushed to the Chongqing survey. December 4, the police finally the first case in Chongqing will be arrested suspects. According to his account, the police and went to Guizhou, the fugitive suspect Huang Sheng-line, Tanzong Ming,coach outlet store online, Wang Fei captured one by one. December 17, four suspects were escorted back to Xi'an.
, after his release a few people do not have a proper job, they gathered together, together with another suspect Wang Fei began seduce robbery. They got called Every city, they allow Wang to some with a similar , and finally by the other gang members took the opportunity to rob.
After further interrogation,Coach Bags, Tan Zongming other four suspects also confessed that they worked in the same way by Nanchong, Sichuan, Shanxi, Taiyuan, Xi'an and other places in Guangdong Foshan committed crimes of robbery and 6, involving up to 50 million yuan . In addition, this group also confessed that the case described five cases of women for prostitution.

相关的主题文章：


Guests were asked to stay after the anti- theft loss compensation for hotel

Network was exposed celebrity donations have been criticized parties retained primary school

mfdosjfd · 发表于 2011-8-8 18:44:00

　　上午7点5分，一对夫妇带着两个小孩来到北京边检中转台前并递上护照,adidas foot。民警发现,ralph lauren pas cher，他们使用的是比利时护照，证件颜色有些“别扭”。

　　文/记者洪雪
　　“比利时首都叫什么,adidas football，国王是谁？”面对民警问出的问题，该男子脑门出了汗。见此情景,polo ralph lauren，民警小马将这一家四口交给了值班领导。经过鉴定，4人所持的4本护照都是伪造的。
　　民警小马说了句法语，男子一听愣了愣，没有回答。比利时说的是法语,Christian Louboutin，但该男子居然听不懂。

　　今晨，一家四口拿着假比利时护照在北京办理转机手续时,louboutin，被北京边检总站查获。
　　偷渡的一家四口接受北京边检人员调查摄/记者曹博远
　　这是北京边检今年查获的首个外国人偷渡团伙。
偷渡的一家四口接受北京边检人员调查摄/记者曹博远

　　据了解，这4人是想从北京转机前往日本，所持护照上有多个东南亚国家的出入境记录，目的是使护照更具迷惑性,polo ralph lauren pas cher。

　　至记者发稿时,adizero f50，边检民警仍在对该案进一步审查中。

相关的主题文章：


"101 Ways To Pray Better And Get Faster Results

美丽的春天_3770

Full article in Chinese

mfdosjfd · 发表于 2011-8-8 18:43:00

朦胧的久远
乡根，永远支撑着我们前行，当现实违背理想，当残酷剥蚀心智，我们，如何去坚守彼此的梦，迷离的现实无法承诺我们美好的未来，想要轰轰烈烈地奔向远方，让梦飞翔，只有让自己找到那份坚持的信念。

今夜，当倦意袭上心头，躺在暖暖的床铺上，正昏昏入睡，窗外那一声空旷而突兀的狗吠声如平地惊雷把我震醒，顿时，睡意全无，思想的隧道正悄悄延伸至心底某个不知名的的柔软角落里。
曾经何时？
再也没有听到这么熟悉却又在这个城市罕能听到的声音，恰在深夜？
依稀记得，在遥远的目光之不所及的地方，那儿,louboutin pas cher，我的童年，我的成长，从那起航，伴随着那令我怀念的狗吠声，那对于我那么唯一的存在。
乡下的孩子,Christian Louboutin，总是很野的。很小很小的时候，我们在地上滚爬着，不在意脏兮兮的衣服，肆意的去逗弄自家的狗，看着他们讨好的摇摆尾巴，总是笑得那么没心没肺，笑得那么得意。
慢慢地。
长大了。
离开了。
来到了一个陌生的城市，它有五彩斑斓的霓虹灯，有四处穿梭的高架桥，有高得望不到顶的水泥森林，有夜夜笙歌的灯红酒绿，有很多很多，乡下没有的东西。
却少了那儿的随处可闻的狗吠声，那些为主人照家对陌生人警惕的低吠，那些见到主人而发出的讨好声，却不谄媚。那些让我倍感熟悉的声音，却不见了。
那一声嘹亮的狗吠，勾起了那一片潮湿，让我回到了那个无忧无虑的国度。遐思，便一夜，缱绻无眠。
既然难眠，索性起身去阳台观观这城市的夜景,Christian Louboutin pas cher。
凌晨的夜，这儿依旧如浓妆艳抹的性感女郎，吸引着我们，霓虹闪烁的,chaussure louboutin pas cher，高大的法国梧桐依然挺拔着，该用什么词来形容呢，浪漫？奢靡？无法穷尽&hellip;&hellip;
而我，像个遗世的独行者，亦或是被世界所抛弃，行走于自己的道上，艰难，却也坚持着。听说，异地求生存，难。可是，我从那遥远的地方，我的乡,louboutin，打包随行的梦想，又怎能就此轻易放下？你说，这是个黑白颠倒的世界，不要太固执了，它的残酷终有一天会剥蚀你的梦，最后，只剩残朽的碎壳。
我的沉默，你的消逝于人群，我看到，原本两个人的梦，只剩我一个人来坚守。今夜，当我濒临崩溃的心境在那一声中苏醒，原来，游子就像放飞了的风筝，有一根线一直连着，牵着，那一端的尽头,adidas foot，是乡情，故乡的事，故乡的物，还有，故乡的人儿。当风筝经不起大风的肆虐时，正欲向地面坠落，那头的掌控者便会拉你一把，便会给你力量，让你再次承载着梦，可以逆着风飞翔，飞到更远的地方。
所以，我对着你那已然模糊的背影说，我相信，我能为曾经我们共同的梦打造真空，让它不被腐蚀，永存不老的容颜。
曾经的曾经，我们信誓旦旦的诺言,adidas adizero，轻易许下；如今到如今，就要用加倍的信念追寻，兑现,polo ralph lauren。梦想，怎可以轻易泯灭？
抬眼，望向天际——
启明星，在闪烁&hellip;&hellip;
即便微弱，却诠释最美好的存在。
同样身处异地的你，是否也看到了，那颗属于你的明星？
相关的主题文章：


Knowing your time

年轻人喜欢过愚人节

Jiangxi Land Seizure Fuels People’s Wrath -->

weiurfkz · 发表于 2011-6-14 17:33:00

According to reports, the suspect Lin × remaining four students hired to help him every month to the ATM to get money to those who cheat , you can receive fifty thousand yuan per person per month NT . Police seized the body from the four involved multiple bank cards , trial testimony after the four arrested under fifty thousand yuan monthly salary of NT hired to assist the extraction of four forest ,vetement ralph lauren, from the proceeds of fraud × life. Procuratorate intervention that available evidence can be identified suspects posed to disguise or conceal such crime to offend ,polo ralph lauren pas cher, it approved the arrest and guide investigative authorities arrested five suspects after the identification of whether an accomplice to fraud .

present,ralph lauren polo, the case still under investigation.

小灵通 · 发表于 2011-5-16 14:37:00

思茅区林业局三措施保护森林宣传行动快、效果好

作者：佚名文章来源：普洱新闻网点击数：27 更新时间：2011-5-11

森林是陆地生态系统的主体，森林资源丰富、功能完整是人类社会可持续繁衍发展的基础，保护和合理利用林地是保护森林资源的重要工作。
为把生态建设、森林资源保护摆在更加突出的位置，切实保护好全区森林资源，近期，思茅区林业局采取三项措施开展了保护森林宣传活动，一是在保护区、主要公路沿线、重点中小型水库径流区、造林地、水源林等重点区域，增加了154名巡护人员进行重点区域巡护；二是针对思茅区松脂产业迅猛发展和毁林开垦的现状，以保护林地、规范采脂为主要内容，印制了2万余份宣传单发放到各乡（镇）、村、组，及时向广大林农传达了新实施的普洱市松脂采集相关规定等信息；三是制作了1100块宣传牌，设置在城区178平方公里生态防护林、主要公路沿线、保护区、水源林、新造林地及涉林旅游景区，内容涉及森林资源保护、森林防火、松脂采集规范等。此次活动覆盖面广，内容丰富，加强了《森林法》宣传力度，对呼吁广大市民注重保护森林资源，维护居住环境，共同建设“生态普洱、和谐普洱、妙曼普洱”起到了积极作用。

yywoyjee · 发表于 2011-5-16 14:28:00

纵横BBS多年，卧底多年，呵呵，今天终于重新做人了，那个肉牛满面啊。

zheng232 · 发表于 2011-5-16 09:15:00

newspaper Changsha, Hunan, known as longest match inquiry boat can take more than 60 paddlers . The boat too much, before launching 50-ton crane by crane into the water yesterday, the huge 37.5 meters long boat crossing the hands of the workshop in the East Tuen completed , will then be put to the Dragon Boat Festival Dragon Boat Race in Liuyang in the east of the river crossing Tuen .

yesterday afternoon, this Three are on the leading craftsmen of the Miao Hong final painted green technology.

leading red , white teeth, green asparagus , as if swimming in the water soon lithe body. Surprisingly , the ship a huge dragon , the back is similar to cable-stayed bridge by the two leading cable pulling , tail. According to Yang Qihui describes the total design , the ship is the agricultural village to build a huge boat , and can seat 64 people. Why create such a long race boat ? Yang Qihui said that the original 1999 production boat , although 23.8 meters, but the service too long, many parts have been aging and facing retirement.

Agricultural Village, said Chen Jieshi boat manufacturing ,vetement ralph lauren, beginning April 26 , they invited more than 10 craftsmen began to build a ship,Polo palph lauren pas cher, boat .

Yangqi Hui said , the ship spent seven or eight boat million, the material used is the diameter of 24 cm, length 17 meters of wood , a total of 18 , which is leading with camphor wood , hull Are fir, pine to ensure the boat is not the whole frame ,casque monster, they used a similar

帐号		自动登录	找回密码
密码			立即注册